Market Timing: Gotta Be Right Twice, Twice

When markets become volatile, it's natural to wonder if now is the right time to make a move. Headlines about geopolitical events, inflation, interest rates, or economic uncertainty can make it feel like every day brings a new reason to buy or sell. While it's tempting to believe that successful investing is all about getting the timing just right, history has shown that consistently predicting market highs and lows is far more difficult than it appears.

An investor not only has to determine when stock prices have peaked (so you can sell), but also when they have bottomed (so you can buy).

In recent weeks, many people have muttered, “I should have sold before the events escalated in the Middle East.” (BTW, some were the same people who last year said, “I should have sold before the tariff talk picked up.”)

Hypothetically, let’s say you did have the foresight to sell in February 2026 before the Middle East became front-page news. Would you have had the courage to buy in late March when the Dow Industrials closed lower for the 5th consecutive week? When oil prices topped $110?

Maybe. But what’s your next market timing strategy? And the next after that? 

Rather than trying to predict the market's next move, focus on building a strategy that's designed to help you pursue your long-term financial goals through every market cycle. If you'd like to review your portfolio or discuss whether your investment strategy still aligns with your goals, the team at Riggle Wealth Group is here to help. Call 717-630-1001 today to schedule a discovery meeting and develop a personalized investment plan built around your future, not the latest headlines.

“In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield,” said Warren Buffett, who is well known for encouraging investors not to watch the markets too closely.

At this point, it’s best to anticipate more volatility in 2026. The Middle East will continue to make headlines, the midterm elections are in November, and the Fed’s next move on interest rates is uncertain.

So, stay focused on the strategy we created. Enjoy the longer days leading up to summer. And remember, as today’s chart shows, missing one or two days can make a big difference! 

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